Hem
formsvackan skrev:Nej, jag bara har en annan insikt än forumhögern. Ert ylande om att Zorba får skylla sig själv och nu finna sig i att lida svältdöden är ett utslag av ett ytterst primitivt tänkande. Tack och lov finns det människor som begriper bättre. Här har du en mycket bra artikel. Be någon läsa och berätta för dig vad som står där.RedMentalCase skrev: säg är du vänster eller bara lite dum i huvet som vanligt?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?_r=0
The 20th century offers a rich road map of policy failure and success addressing sovereign debt crises.
The good news is that by now economists generally understand the contours of a successful approach. The bad news is that too many policy makers still take too long to heed their advice — insisting on repeating failed policies first.
The recurring, historical pattern? Major debt overhangs are only solved after deep write-downs of the debt’s face value. The longer it takes for the debt to be cut, the bigger the necessary write-down will turn out to be.
It is a general lesson about the nature of debt. Yet from the World War I defaults of more than a dozen countries in the 1930s to the Brady write-downs of the early 1990s, which ended a decade of high debt and no growth in Latin America and other developing countries, it is a lesson that has to be relearned again and again.
“The crisis exit in both episodes came only after deep face-value debt write-offs had been implemented,” they concluded. “Softer forms of debt relief, such as maturity extensions and interest rate reductions, are not generally followed by higher economic growth or improved credit ratings.”
Policy makers have yet to get this.
Even as late as March 2014, the I.M.F. held that the government in Athens could take out 3 percent of the Greek economy this year, as a primary budget surplus, and 4.5 percent next year, and still enjoy an economic growth surge to a 4 percent pace.
How could it achieve this feat? Piece of cake. Greek total factor productivity growth only had to surge from the bottom to the top of the list of countries using the euro. Its labor supply had to jump to the top of the table and its employment rate had to reach German levels.
The assumptions come in shocking contrast to the day-to-day reality of Greece, where more than a quarter of the work force is unemployed, some three-quarters of bank loans are nonperforming, tax payments are routinely postponed or avoided and the government finances itself by not paying its bills.
“If ‘optimism’ results in serial diagnostic underestimation of a serious problem, it is no virtue: At best, it badly prolongs the ailment; at worst, it is fatal.”
Creditors, of course, do not generally like debtors to write down their debt. But that’s not how Germany and its allies justify their approach. They rely instead on a “moral hazard” argument: If Greece were offered an easy way to get out of debt, what would prevent it from living the high life on other people’s money again? What kind of lesson would this send to, say, Portugal?
But the Greek economy has shrunk by a quarter. Its pensioners have been impoverished. Its banks are closed. That counts as suffering consequences.
No sane government would emulate the Greek path.
Greece has done little to address its endemic economic mismanagement. But it has few incentives to do so if the fruits of economic improvements will flow to its creditors.
Det är nu skarpt läge och hög tid att sluta yla över "lata grekers pensionsvillkor". Krisen måste lösas på samma sätt som liknande kriser lösts förr. Om ditt primitiva inre liv får dig att slå knut på dig själv över denna nödvändighet är det måhända beklagligt, eller kanske inte ....
btw: Det är extremt ovanligt att sektkommunister eller röda svin skriver i NY Times, så du blir inte trodd om du kommer med något sådant igen.
Kan inte du låna ut pengar till mig? Och när jag säger att jag inte har råd att betala tillbaka efter att ha köpt en ny bil och lite lyxiga semestrar för pengarna så accepterar du att vi stryker skulden. Vad säga? Ska vi köra på det?
