R.O.F.L 2016-10-28, 10:43
Kommer bli en blodig helg. Se om jihadisterna har några trumfkort att spela ut.
The rebels are saying they will soon launch another assault on Aleppo to break the SAA's siege. This from the West, using troops coming from Idlib.
Now this seems a bit strange, as a previous attempt to break the siege resulted in excessive losses, and only limited and temporary gains. If anything such assaults are in the interests of Assad and his allies, as it allows them to engage these troop concentration with heavy bombardments in open fields. And any losses will likely be quickly regained.
More interesting however is that this offensive coincides with two other events: the arrival of Russia's only aircraft carrier, and the fact that the Turkish supported rebels are now closing in on Aleppo from the North.
Now many believe Erdogan when he says his focus is on ISIS and the Kurds, but somehow I doubt that the rebels will not be at least interested in mounting an offensive against the SAA's siege lines from the North, if their brothers are attacking the city at the same time from the West.
For one thing there is the news that ISIS is abandoning the Infantry School on the SAA's lines border, which would make it easier for the rebels to capture (I doubt ISIS can/wants to hold it wedged between the SAA and the rebels/Turkey). This would make an excellent base of operations for the rebels, from there they can push into the industrial area, and from there link to East Aleppo.
The other thing is that by attacking from the West and the North at the same time, they'll force the SAA to spread out its troops, and will potentially break their supply lines at both sides, which would be huge, and turn West Aleppo into a siege. It makes a lot of sense from a tactical and strategic perspective.
Erdogan from his side still has large geopolitical interests in Assad's defeat, for all his talk about being an ally (the SAA certainly considers him an enemy). Just today he implied he'd like to add Mosul to Turkey, and I'm sure he has his eye on al-Bab, Manbij and Raqqah as well. Plus there's the Qatari gas pipeline that would make him a very rich and powerful man indeed.
The problem is that for a rebel offensive to succeed, they will need a way to limit the Russian air power. And to do so requires a no-fly zone, which has been talked about a lot recently, but no serious person expects to happen. Unless there's an MH-17 type incident, or say a chemical attack on the rebels, as has happened before.
Which brings me to my second point, Russia's aircraft carrier is about to arrive in theater. Now the media is saying it's there to bomb Aleppo (and Spain "heroically" refused to refuel it), which is kind of odd considering it's very poor at that role. What it is very good at is providing air defence for Russian ships, who in turn are equiped with long range air defence systems.
Now if the Coalition does for whatever unforseen excuse decide to enforce a no-fly zone on Aleppo (chemical attacks happen, airliners get shot down, and you don't need to actually prove who's responsible to start a war or enforce sanctions), and Russia decides to go to war rather than back down, the aircraft carrier's presence will be a huge help at guarding Syria from the sea, and Russia's ships while they employ their air defence systems to counter the coalition's air power.
Hem
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